Welcome back to NFL Drop Army.

Think of me as your smart, no-bs friend, who spends far too much time thinking about +EV ways to bet on the NFL.

We swept our Thursday Night Football send in Week 1… time to prove it’s not a fluke and go back-to-back!

Another newsletter I think you’ll love…

Way-Too-Early UNDERS (Week 2)

#8

👇 D. Swift: U 44.5 rush yards

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This is too high against a tough Texans run defense that held Jonathan Taylor to 48 yards.

#7

👇 A. Richardson: U 208.5 pass yards

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Speaking of JT, he's about to run all over Green Bay just like Saquon... So Richardson won't need to throw enough to come close to 208.5 passing yards.

#6

👇 D. Adams: U 5.5 rec

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The Ravens' defense is no joke, giving up the 5th-lowest adjusted completion rate to WRs at just 59.4% since last season. Adams is up against a tough matchup..

#5

👇 B. Hall: U 18.5 carries

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The Jets are only running 36.9% of their plays as rushing attempts. Hall's 18.5 carry line is too high, especially with the Titans' 6th-best DTs against the run.

#4

👇 J. Conner: U 15.5 carries

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The Rams have the best defensive ends against the run, while Conner’s expected carry share is down to just 47.1% compared to his 58.9% from last season.

#3

👇 J. Herbert: U 217.5 pass yards

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The Chargers’ run-heavy game plan last week left Herbert with just 17 completions. There will be a lot more of the same in Week 2.

#2

👇 G. Minshew: U 203.5 pass yards

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The Ravens allowed the 2nd-lowest adjusted yards per target to QBs last year (6.5), and Minshew struggles under pressure, ranking in just the 23rd percentile for adjusted yards per target.

Thursday Night Football (BUF@MIA)

#5

👇 J. Allen: U 248.5 pass yards

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This game is projected to have the 2nd-fewest plays of the week, so the volume just won’t be there. Miami also allows the 10th-fewest yards after catch, so Allen won’t get the easy yardage through the air needed to clear 248.5.

#4

👇 D. Kincaid: U 44.5 rec yards

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Kincaid might have a decent role, but Miami's defense is tough on tight ends. They allow the 9th-fewest yards per target. And even though I’m projecting an 18.5% target share... the game's slow pace and Miami's defense will make it hard for Kincaid to reach 44.5 yards.

#3

👇 T. Tagovailoa: U 270.5 pass yards

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Kyler Murray didn’t complete a single pass over 10 yards last Sunday, and Tua has a well-known history of struggling against the Bills. But here’s the twist: Miami’s offense thrives on big plays and yards after the catch—exactly what Buffalo’s Top-3 defense specializes in shutting down. Take Tua less than 270.5.

#2

👇 T. Hill: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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This one should be obvious... because we're doubling down on the easiest touchdown prediction on the board. Regardless if Tua struggles… Tyreek gets in the box yet again.