Any-Time TD

Football is rolling into Week 9, and the end zone edges are clear. Here are my favorite Anytime TD plays… in two minutes or less.

#8 - J. Jefferson

Jefferson remains the centerpiece of Minnesota’s passing game with double-digit targets in four straight and a 31.7% target share under McCarthy, proving his volume hasn’t dipped despite the quarterback shuffle. He’s running nearly every critical route, commanding looks in every red-zone sequence, and still creating separation at an elite clip. But Detroit’s defense is the classic bend-don’t-break setup; they allow the fewest WR1 receptions per game yet surrender the second-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers and a 9.4% TD rate to WR1s. That means they contain yardage but consistently break when the field shrinks.

Jefferson’s history proves it; he’s scored in three of his last four against Detroit, often on contested plays or scramble drills, exactly where McCarthy thrives in off-script situations. The Vikings will need to open the playbook and chase points, which means more high-leverage looks for Jefferson. So even if Detroit limits volume between the 20s, Jefferson’s end-zone usage and history in this matchup make this TD projection way too low for one of the league’s best finishers.

#7 - A. St. Brown

Amon-Ra is the heartbeat of Detroit’s offense, leading all wide receivers in red-zone target share while averaging seven-plus catches and nearly 80 yards per game. He already has seven touchdowns, consistently commanding the highest-value looks in the passing game. But this matchup amplifies everything he does well. Minnesota blitzes at a top-three rate, and against those looks, St. Brown has been elite, drawing targets on nearly one-third of routes with over three yards per route run.

Across four meetings against Brian Flores defenses, St. Brown has caught 25 of 29 targets for 352 yards and three touchdowns, torching blitz-heavy schemes with surgical precision. Add in his multiple touchdown home games, and the matchup sets up perfectly for another scoring burst. So with Detroit back home and facing a defensive style he’s already destroyed, St. Brown’s red-zone efficiency and volume make this pick feel like an absolute lock.

#6 - J. Gibbs

Gibbs has entered full breakout mode with seven total touchdowns, over 90 rushing yards in every home game, and two scores last week as his role expands weekly. His burst and vision are creating explosive plays in every phase, and Detroit’s offense is clearly building around him. But Minnesota is an ideal target, allowing the most rushing yards per game to running backs from multi-tight end sets while ranking near the bottom in success rate against those looks.

Detroit thrives in this exact setup, running two- and three-tight end formations at one of the highest rates in the league. Gibbs ranks fourth in rushing attempts from multi-tight end formations, giving him the perfect schematic advantage. And the kicker, he scored six times against Minnesota last year, the most by any player versus one opponent all season. So with home-field leverage and a defense he’s already torched, Gibbs feels primed to find the end zone again in this one.

#5 - C. McCaffery

McCaffrey is as steady as it gets, scoring in five straight games and maintaining elite red-zone usage every week. Even after last week’s down performance, his workload hasn’t changed. He’s still the first option on every goal-line snap. But the Giants defense is tailor-made for a McCaffrey rebound, allowing the most yards per carry, most points per touch, and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this year.

The cracks run deep, with nearly two yards before contact and over four after contact, the worst combined profile in the league. They’re also giving up over 140 rushing yards per game to the position, getting gashed weekly by explosive backs. So with his red-zone consistency meeting a defense that can’t tackle or fill gaps, McCaffrey’s odds to score are among the best on the slate. This one feels automatic.

#4 - J. Chase

Chase’s recent stretch is absurd with a target share nearing 46 percent since his quarterback change, double-digit targets every week, and four touchdowns over his last four games. He’s thriving on timing routes, screens, and deep shots alike, while commanding nearly half of his team’s passing volume. But Chicago has been a WR1 funnel. The Bears allow the third-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers, rank near the bottom in points allowed to WR1s, and own one of the worst TD rates against lead receivers.

They’re also vulnerable deep, giving up over 60 percent completions on throws of ten or more yards and over half on passes of twenty or more, both bottom-three marks. Chase has been waiting for a defense this easy to manipulate, and his quick chemistry with his quarterback keeps those red-zone targets alive. So when you combine elite usage with a bottom-tier secondary, this projection looks insanely beatable. His touchdown equity is through the roof in this matchup.

#3 - J. Jacobs

Jacobs has been one of the most reliable touchdown scorers in football, hitting in seventeen of his last nineteen games with twenty-five total touchdowns in that span. His red-zone monopoly is unmatched, as every single inside-the-ten carry for Green Bay belongs to him, and his usage hasn’t dipped even in lopsided games. But Carolina’s run defense is falling apart, giving up over two hundred yards and two touchdowns to James Cook last week and ranking near the bottom in rushing success rate allowed over the past month.

The Packers also enter this matchup with the highest team total of the week, pointing toward more scoring chances. With Green Bay likely controlling the game early, Jacobs’ goal-line volume should spike again. So facing a defense that just got torched by a similar workload, Jacobs to score feels inevitable. This projection doesn’t reflect how dominant he’s been inside the red zone.

#2 - J. Allen

Allen looks fully unleashed again, scoring two rushing touchdowns last week and averaging over ten rushes and fifty yards per game against Kansas City in their last nine matchups. His legs and arm have both been weapons in high-pressure spots, keeping Buffalo’s red-zone efficiency among the league’s best. But the Chiefs remain vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, ranking near the bottom in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks and giving up the second-most rushing touchdowns to the position this season.

Kansas City blitzes him on thirty percent of dropbacks, yet he maintains a strong touchdown rate against pressure, punishing aggressive looks with both quick strikes and scrambles. That combination makes him nearly impossible to contain once drives reach the ten-yard line. So with multiple scoring paths and the Chiefs’ defensive tendencies feeding right into his style, one total touchdown feels guaranteed. This is vintage Josh Allen in a prime scoring spot.

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That’s the list. The best Week 9 scoring spots won’t stay hidden long, strike now and own Sunday.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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