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Best Any-Time TD bets (Week 15)

#8

👇A. Jones: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Aaron Jones is in a PRIME position to deliver yet another standout performance in Week 15. The Bears’ defense has been a TURNSTILE for running backs all season, allowing the 5TH-MOST rushing touchdowns to the position and ranking 31ST in rushing points per touch (0.91). They’ve been absolutely TORCHED recently, surrendering 17.6 rushing points per game (31ST) over the back half of the season and allowing 3+ touchdowns to backfields in three of their last four games.

In their Week 12 matchup, Jones proved he could EXPLOIT this defense, turning 25 touches into 129 yards and a touchdown, setting the stage for another productive outing. Chicago’s defensive front is consistently overmatched, ranking 25TH in points allowed per touch to backs, while giving up explosive performances to even secondary backfields. Over the past four weeks, they’ve allowed 156 yards and 3 touchdowns to San Francisco’s backups, 228 yards to Detroit’s backfield, and 147 yards plus a touchdown to Green Bay’s rotation.

BUT Jones has regained his role as the Vikings’ go-to back, with 75% of the backfield touches since Week 6, and he’s facing a Bears’ defense that ranks 5TH-WORST in adjusted rushing yards per game (141). SO with Chicago’s inability to contain runners in high-volume scenarios, Jones finding the end zone feels not just likely—but INEVITABLE.

#7

👇R. Dowdle: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Rico Dowdle has emerged as a WORKHORSE for Dallas, and he’s stepping into an IDEAL matchup this week against Carolina’s porous run defense. The Panthers have allowed the MOST rushing touchdowns (15) to running backs this season and rank 3RD-WORST in adjusted rushing yards per game (181). Their inability to stop opposing backfields has been a glaring issue, as they’ve consistently given up big plays and scoring opportunities.

Dowdle’s role has solidified, with the Cowboys leaning on him for 19+ touches in three straight games, and his efficiency is ELITE. He’s averaging 3.38 yards after contact (76TH PERCENTILE) and ranks among the league’s most consistent runners in neutral-to-positive game scripts. Carolina’s defensive struggles go beyond the surface—this is a unit with the WORST success rate (54.3%) against running back runs and linebackers graded as the WORST in the NFL in run defense.

BUT Dowdle’s recent workload, combined with his ability to generate extra yardage, makes him a scoring THREAT every time he touches the ball. SO with Carolina’s glaring weaknesses in the red zone, this pick feels like a NO-BRAINER.

#6

👇C. Hubbard: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Chuba Hubbard is a VOLUME MACHINE, and with a clear runway as Carolina’s lead back, he’s set to take advantage of a vulnerable Dallas defense. The Cowboys have allowed the 2ND-MOST total touchdowns (16) to running backs and rank 27TH in rushing points allowed per game (16.4), making this an IDEAL spot for Hubbard to deliver.

Hubbard’s efficiency has been unmatched—he leads the NFL in rushes over expectations (49.8%) and ranks 8TH in yards after contact per rush (3.4), proving he can capitalize on even marginal opportunities. Since Jonathon Brooks’ injury, Hubbard has handled 71.5% of Carolina’s backfield touches, cementing his role as a high-volume workhorse. Dallas’ defensive front is a LIABILITY, allowing a first down or touchdown on 24.8% of running back runs (26TH in NFL), and they’ve struggled to contain runners in the red zone.

BUT Hubbard’s ability to break tackles and create yardage after contact makes him the PERFECT candidate to exploit these weaknesses. SO with his high-volume role and Dallas’ struggles against backs, this pick feels like a LOCK.

👇J. Conner: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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James Conner is poised for a BIG week against a Patriots defense that has struggled to contain running backs in scoring situations. New England allows the 8TH-MOST total touchdowns to backs this season and ranks 24TH in rushing points allowed per game (15.7), setting the stage for a favorable matchup.

Arizona’s offense is in a PRIME position, with the 4TH-HIGHEST team total of the week, and Conner remains the focal point, accounting for 64.7% of the Cardinals’ rushing workload. His consistency has been a hallmark in favorable setups—in three recent home wins, Conner has averaged 128 scrimmage yards and 1 TD per game, proving he THRIVES when game script aligns.

BUT the Patriots’ defensive front has shown vulnerabilities, ranking among the league’s WORST in efficiency against power runners. SO with Conner’s heavy workload and Arizona projected to dominate as home favorites, his scoring potential feels like a GIVEN.

#4

👇 Br. Robinson: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Brian Robinson is set to DOMINATE in Week 15 against a Saints defense that has been BLEEDING points to running backs. New Orleans allows the 4TH-MOST rushing touchdowns to backs and ranks 30TH in rushing points per game (17.2), making this an ideal matchup for a high-volume back like Robinson.

Robinson is forecasted for 18+ carries, placing him in the 93RD PERCENTILE for workload among running backs this week. Washington’s 48.7% run rate ranks as the 4TH-HIGHEST on the slate, and game script projects a heavy rushing attack. New Orleans’ defensive tackles are graded as the WORST run-defending unit in the NFL, and their overall rushing efficiency (5.18 YPC allowed) ranks 3RD-WORST in the league.

BUT Robinson’s role as the Commanders’ lead back makes him the PERFECT candidate to exploit these weaknesses. SO with Washington’s commitment to the run and New Orleans’ consistent struggles, this pick feels like an EASY SMASH.

#3

👇 Bi. Robinson: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Bijan Robinson is peaking at the PERFECT time, and this week’s matchup against the Raiders is BUILT for his skillset. Las Vegas allows the 4TH-MOST rushing points per game to backs and has given up MULTIPLE touchdowns to backfields in three of their last four contests.

Robinson has been a WORKHORSE, averaging 22.9 touches per game over his last eight and clearing 100 scrimmage yards in 7 of those 8 games. The Raiders’ run defense is a LIABILITY, allowing a first down or touchdown on 24.6% of running back runs (27TH in NFL), and recent matchups highlight their struggles—they just allowed 174 yards and 2 TDs to Tampa Bay’s backfield.

BUT Robinson’s elite efficiency, ranking 2ND in success rate (47.4%), ensures he can capitalize on these weaknesses. SO his scoring potential this week feels like a FOREGONE CONCLUSION.

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