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Best Any-Time TD bets (Week 12)

#3

👇 M. Evans: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Mike Evans returns this week to a matchup that checks every box for touchdown upside. The Giants’ pass defense has been a disaster, allowing the HIGHEST touchdown rate (10.9%) to WR1s this season—a DEAD LAST ranking in the NFL. Without Chris Godwin in the lineup, Evans has been nothing short of dominant, commanding targets on 53.8% of his routes and averaging a ridiculous 3.43 yards per route run. BUT what really sets Evans apart is his red-zone dominance. He’s claimed 50% of the Buccaneers’ end-zone targets in games where he’s been active, and with Tampa Bay ranking as the 4TH-MOST pass-heavy team in neutral situations, this offense is perfectly set up to maximize his skill set. SO, with a WR1 role cemented and a Giants defense that struggles in all phases of pass coverage, Evans is primed to CRUSH this number and find the end zone.

#2

👇 B. Robinson: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Brian Robinson has been a touchdown magnet this season, and this week’s matchup makes him a LOCK for another. The Dallas Cowboys’ defense ranks 2ND-MOST in rushing touchdowns allowed and has been carved up by opposing backfields, giving up 18.9 rushing points per game—the 2ND-WORST rate in the NFL. Washington’s game plan also tilts heavily in Robinson’s favor, with the Commanders projected to run on 52.5% of their plays (the 2ND-HIGHEST rate of the week) as massive 10.5-point favorites. BUT the real edge comes from Robinson’s efficiency and volume. He ranks in the 83RD PERCENTILE for yards after contact (3.57), and our projections place him in the 96TH PERCENTILE for carries this week among RBs. SO, with Dallas allowing the 31ST-MOST points per rushing attempt (0.78) and Washington in a prime position to control the game script, Robinson is set to DOMINATE in this spot and find the end zone.

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