Any-Time TD

Football is rolling into Week 11, and the end zone edges are clear. Here are my favorite Anytime TD plays… in two minutes or less.

#6 - J. Warren

Jaylen Warren just handled 80% of the Steelers backfield touches and turned 16 opportunities into 91 yards, so his role as the primary engine of this offense is not in question at all. But even with Kenneth Gainwell stealing third-down routes in recent weeks, the matchup on the ground is so good that Warren does not need passing work to matter here. The Bengals have been absolutely GASSED by running backs every single week, giving up 100+ rushing yards to opposing backfields in nine straight games and allowing the 2ND-MOST touchdowns to the position this season. When these teams met in Week 7, Warren delivered one of the most efficient games of any back all year, ripping Cincinnati for a season-high 127 rushing yards at 7.9 per carry, posting a 56.3% success rate, gaining yards on all 16 of his rushes, and popping FOUR double-digit runs that hit them exactly where they are weakest.

Cincinnati has also allowed multiple RB1 scoring weeks over their last four games, which tells you this is not a one-off problem, it is a full-on trend of backfields PILING UP production and finishing drives. But the real key is that Warren already fits the profile of the backs who have burned them, with recent scoring form that includes 2 touchdowns just two games ago and a usage spike that gives him almost every meaningful carry. So when you combine a clear feature workload with a defense allowing this many yards and the 2ND-MOST RB touchdowns, more than 0.5 total touchdowns for Warren is exactly the kind of RB pick that feels like a LOCK for any entry built around this game.

#5 - C. McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey has not had his best year as a pure runner by the numbers, sitting last in yards per carry among backs with 100+ rushes and posting a modest success rate on the ground, but he still ranks as a top-two running back in PPR, half-PPR, and standard scoring because of how heavily he is used as both a rusher and receiver. That dual role is exactly what we want against Arizona. The Cardinals have quietly turned into one of the SOFTEST defenses for touchdown chances, allowing the 4TH-MOST rushing touchdowns to running backs while giving up 4.5 yards per carry and a 57.9% success rate against backfield runs, which is 26TH in the league. Over their recent stretch, they have been hit for big games by feature backs like Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, and Javonte Williams, including 181 rushing yards and 2 scores to the Seattle backfield and multiple-touchdown outings in prior weeks.

McCaffrey has already shown he can crush this exact matchup even when the rushing lanes are not perfect. In their Week 3 meeting, he carried 17 times for 52 yards but still saw 15 targets, catching 10 for 88 yards and racking up fantasy points by working around the weak Arizona tackling and coverage on running backs. But the biggest tell is what he has done to the Cardinals over the long view, piling up 7 touchdowns across his last three games against them and consistently turning his usage into end-zone trips. So even if the rushing efficiency remains mediocre, the combination of heavy snaps, pass-game volume, and a defense that ranks near the bottom in run-stopping and red-zone resistance makes more than 0.5 total touchdowns for McCaffrey a pick that plays like RB1 ceiling baked into a single projection.

#4 - D. Achane

De’Von Achane just reminded everyone what his ceiling looks like, dropping 225 total yards on Buffalo with 174 rushing yards, two long touchdown runs of 35 and 59 yards, and 6 catches for 51 yards, all while handling 28 touches and crossing the 20-touch mark for the third straight game. That blend of volume and big-play ability is rare, and it lines up almost perfectly with what Washington has been unable to stop. Over their five-game losing streak, the Commanders have been one of the WORST run defenses in football, allowing 5.5 yards per carry to running backs, a 55.3% success rate on those runs, and 135.4 rushing yards per game, numbers that put them firmly in the bottom tier across every meaningful rushing metric.

Washington has also struggled to contain running backs through the air, giving up 3 receiving touchdowns to the position over that same five-game stretch. Achane is uniquely built to exploit that weakness, owning a 22% target share among running backs and sitting tied for the MOST receiving touchdowns at the position. But what really ties this together is the pattern of backs who have already burned this defense: D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs all posted front-end scoring weeks with big yardage and touchdowns in this recent span, showing that Washington can be attacked by both power and speed. So when you give a player with Achane’s explosive profile 20+ touches against a defense allowing the 5TH-MOST rushing touchdowns to running backs and near-bottom metrics across the board, more than 0.5 total touchdowns becomes the kind of dual-threat pick that feels built for a high-upside lay.

#3 - J. Jefferson

Justin Jefferson’s box scores with JJ McCarthy have been noisy, but the usage has stayed exactly where we want it, with target shares of 35%, 28.6%, 39.1%, and 29.3% across the rookie’s four starts. That kind of volume still screams WR1, even when some of those looks have been off-target while McCarthy adjusts to NFL speed. This is where the matchup does a lot of the heavy lifting. The Bears have been one of the SOFTEST defenses in the league against top receivers, ranking 28TH in points allowed to WR1s and giving up the 2ND-MOST touchdowns to wide receivers overall. They also struggle to defend the deep ball, allowing 16 receptions on throws 20 or more yards downfield, which puts them near the bottom of the league in limiting explosive plays.

Jefferson has already taken advantage of this defense once this season, turning 7 targets into 44 yards and a touchdown back in Week 1. That score was not a fluke. He has now found the end zone in each of his last two games against Chicago, which pairs his WR1 usage with a clear track record of converting chances in this specific matchup. But the part that makes this even more appealing is how this spot can be used to build McCarthy’s confidence as a passer; this is the kind of opponent Kevin O’Connell can attack to simplify reads and lean on his best weapon. So when you combine Jefferson’s massive share of the passing game with a defense that consistently gives up touchdowns and explosive plays to lead receivers, more than 0.5 total touchdowns becomes a clean, upside-driven way to play the Vikings passing attack in any contest.

#2 - D. London

Drake London is in full alpha mode right now, stringing together top-end weeks with four WR1-level scoring finishes in his last five games and finding the end zone 4 times over his past two outings, including a two-point conversion on top. His role in this offense is exactly what we want for touchdown hunting: he ranks near the top of the league in target share at 29.7%, sits 4TH in yards per route run at 2.50, and absolutely DOMINATES scoring chances with 38.5% of the team’s red-zone targets and a league-best 61.5% of the end-zone targets. That is about as pure as touchdown equity gets for a wide receiver.

The matchup against Carolina adds even more juice. The Panthers run Cover 3 at a rate right in line with the highest-usage teams in the league, and London has punished that look with a 32.6% target share and 3.45 yards per route run, which is ELITE efficiency against the exact coverage he will see most often here. Carolina ranks 24TH in points allowed to WR1s and sits near the bottom in yards per target given up to those primary wideouts, which means top receivers not only see volume, they also gain chunk yards and scoring chances. One of London’s more modest stat lines came in the earlier meeting this year, but he still saw 8 targets and 55 yards, and zooming out shows the real story: he has scored 3 touchdowns over his last 3 matchups with the Panthers. So with elite usage, elite end-zone volume, and a coverage scheme he already CRUSHES, more than 0.5 total touchdowns for London fits the mold of a high-confidence WR pick in this entry.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. The best Week 11 scoring spots won’t stay hidden long, strike now and own Sunday.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA