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Best Any-Time TD bets (Week 11)

#5

👇 T. Kelce: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

Top Multiplier: (Underdog) | USE CODE: NFLARMY

Travis Kelce is as dominant as ever, averaging 10.7 targets per game over the last six weeks and scoring in three straight matchups against the Bills. BUT his history against Buffalo makes this pick even more compelling—he’s scored 8 touchdowns in the last 7 meetings between these teams, consistently thriving in high-pressure games. The Chiefs are projected to pass at the 5TH-HIGHEST rate this week (61.1%), further boosting Kelce’s opportunities in one of the league’s most pass-heavy offenses.

Buffalo’s linebackers have been exposed this season, ranking as the 2ND-WORST unit in coverage against pass-catchers, a glaring weakness that Kelce is primed to exploit. Kansas City’s offensive line, graded as the BEST pass-protection unit in the league, will give Mahomes the time he needs to find his favorite target in key scoring situations. With Kelce operating as the focal point of the Chiefs’ passing game and thriving in this rivalry, his touchdown feels like a LOCK to hit yet again.

#4

👇 D. Achane: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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De’Von Achane’s role in the Dolphins’ offense is expanding, and his efficiency makes him one of the most dangerous players in the NFL. Last week, he commanded 71% of Miami’s backfield touches, his highest share of the season, and he’s taken 4 of the last 5 goal-line snaps. BUT the matchup against the Raiders is tailor-made for Achane to explode. Las Vegas allows the 4TH-WORST yards per carry (4.64 YPC) and ranks 25TH in receiving points allowed to running backs, struggling to contain backs in every phase of the game.

The Dolphins enter Week 11 with the 3RD-HIGHEST Vegas team total, signaling a high-scoring game in which Miami is a heavy favorite. This means a run-heavy game script where Achane, who is already the primary option in scoring situations, will see plenty of opportunities to capitalize. Las Vegas’ defense has been gashed repeatedly by versatile backs, and Achane’s combination of speed, receiving ability, and red zone involvement makes him an ideal candidate to score. In this matchup, with his role solidified, Achane finding the end zone feels like EASY MONEY.

#3

👇 D. Montgomery: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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David Montgomery is a touchdown machine, and Week 11’s matchup sets the stage for another easy score. Montgomery has found the end zone in 8 of 10 games this season, and touchdowns account for 34.6% of his total fantasy production, ranking him 4TH among running backs. BUT the Jaguars' defense provides a prime opportunity for him to continue this streak. Jacksonville has allowed the MOST receiving yards and the 6TH-MOST rushing yards to running backs this season, making them one of the most generous units to opposing backfields. The Lions enter Week 11 as 13-point home favorites with the HIGHEST Vegas team total of the week, signaling a game script heavily tilted toward scoring opportunities for Montgomery.

He’s also the centerpiece of Detroit’s rushing attack, accounting for 47.5% of the team’s rushing workload and dominating high-value carries near the goal line. With the Lions’ offense firing on all cylinders and Jacksonville struggling to stop running backs in every facet, Montgomery is primed to take advantage of this matchup. In a high-scoring game where Detroit will control the pace, Montgomery feels like a LOCK to find the end zone.

#2

👇 J. Mixon: O 0.5 Rush+Rec TDs

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Joe Mixon continues to be the definition of a workhorse back, logging 24+ touches in each of his last four games and scoring 7 rushing touchdowns this season. BUT this week’s matchup against the Cowboys makes his scoring potential even stronger. Dallas’s defense has allowed the 3RD-MOST rushing touchdowns to running backs this year, and their 30TH-ranked success rate against running back runs highlights how ineffective they’ve been at stopping the ground game. Houston enters Week 11 as 7.5-point favorites with the 5TH-HIGHEST Vegas team total of the week, signaling plenty of scoring chances for the Texans.

Mixon is projected to handle 23.5 carries, the most among all running backs in Week 11, and he’s claimed 84.1% of Houston’s backfield touches since Week 6. This level of volume, combined with Dallas’s inability to stop the run, creates the perfect storm for Mixon to find the end zone. In a game where the Texans are expected to control the tempo, Mixon scoring feels like a near-certainty.

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