Any-Time TD

Football is rolling into Week 10, and the end zone edges are clear. Here are my favorite Anytime TD plays… in two minutes or less.

#8 - W. Robinson

Robinson’s usage profile screams breakout potential. He’s seeing true WR1-level volume with a 34.4% target share alongside Darius Slayton, his highest rate this season. He dominates short-area routes, averaging 4.3 air yards per target and catching nearly everything underneath, but that’s exactly where defenses like Chicago break down. The Bears have allowed the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers and a league-high 18.4% touchdown rate to slot receivers, bleeding red-zone efficiency to short-separation players like Robinson. They also rank 29th in yards per target against slot routes, so these quick-hitters consistently turn into big gains.

He’s already shown the reliability piece, posting nine receptions in a single game with elite slot snap share. So a high-percentage role in space meets a defense that cannot stop slot scoring, giving Robinson multiple avenues to hit. When short-area targets equal red-zone equity, more than 0.5 feels like the most underpriced projection on the board.

#7 - D. Achane

Achane is the definition of explosive balance, producing 20 touches for 106 total yards last week and a 21.5 percent target share that ranks second among running backs. He’s also top-six in explosive-run rate and fifth in total touchdowns among running backs. But Buffalo’s defense is tailor-made for backs like him, allowing the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs, 30th in yards per carry at 5.1, and a top-five running back target share against.

They’re getting beat both downhill and in the flats, conceding big gains after contact. Achane’s 19-touch performance in their first matchup already proved his efficiency translates against this front, and this time he enters with extra rest. His combination of receiving floor and red-zone efficiency makes him lethal against linebackers who can’t tackle in space. So an elite dual-threat meets a defense gashed by running back scoring all year, making more than 0.5 not just possible, it feels free.

#6 - J. Allen

Allen’s dominance over Miami is historical. Across 16 career games, he’s thrown 43 touchdowns, cleared multiple scores in 15 of those, and averaged 45 rushing yards per game. He enters this matchup scorching hot, with four rushing touchdowns in his last two games and an 88.5 percent completion rate in his latest outing. But the reason it continues is simple. Miami’s defense has no answer for mobile quarterbacks, allowing the second-most quarterback touchdowns and ranking 29th in quarterback rushing points allowed.

When these two met in Week 3, Allen completed 78.6 percent of passes for 273 yards and three touchdowns, showing total control. His rushing floor gives extra scoring paths, while his passing ceiling guarantees exposure to the end zone every drive. So elite form meets a defense he’s owned for years, combining rushing and passing dominance into the easiest touchdown projection on the board. More than 0.5 isn’t a lean, it’s a lock.

#5 - D. Kincaid

Kincaid is breaking out as one of the NFL’s most efficient tight ends, leading the position in yards per route run (3.0) despite being on the field for barely half of Buffalo’s dropbacks. He’s turned limited volume into production, with two 100-yard games in his last three and a touchdown last week, cementing himself as Allen’s most explosive option outside Diggs. But this matchup makes him even more dangerous. Miami is the ultimate tight-end funnel, surrendering the second-most touchdowns to tight ends, a league-high 31 percent share of receptions to the position, and an 82.6 percent catch rate that ranks third-worst in the league.

He already torched them once, catching five of six for 66 yards and a touchdown in their first meeting. The Dolphins’ coverage scheme allows easy mid-field releases, exactly where Kincaid thrives with Allen’s quick reads. So elite per-route efficiency meets the NFL’s softest tight end coverage unit, and with Buffalo using him more on play-action and third downs, more than 0.5 feels like a locked-in touchdown setup.

#4 - S. LaPorta

LaPorta has turned into a core weapon for Detroit’s offense, recording 97 yards and a 40-yard touchdown last week and finding the end zone in three of his last four games. He leads the team on play-action routes with a 31.1 percent target rate and an elite 3.42 yards per route run, and that’s exactly how Goff exploits Washington. The Commanders have been shredded by tight ends, allowing the second-most touchdowns, 31st in yards per target, and a 30th-ranked touchdown rate when defending play-action to tight ends.

That combination gives Detroit’s play-action offense free releases and seams in space. LaPorta’s role, working between linebackers in coverage, makes him almost unguardable against these splits. His consistency, paired with Washington’s inability to adjust, turns this from a matchup advantage into a scoring expectation. So a tight end operating at an elite play-action rate meets one of the worst tight end defenses in football. More than 0.5 is the obvious read.

#3 - D. Njoku

Njoku’s chemistry with Gabriel is peaking. He’s caught 13 of 20 targets over the last three games for 132 yards and two touchdowns, emerging as the most trusted red-zone weapon on the team. He’s earned a team-high 26 percent target rate per route, showing that when Cleveland throws, Njoku’s first in the progression. But this matchup turns opportunity into expectation. The Jets have allowed the second-highest touchdown rate to tight ends at 10.5 percent, trailing only the Bengals, and even though they limit yardage per target, they routinely lose tight ends inside the 20.

That fits Njoku perfectly. His scoring weeks directly correlate with end-zone looks. He’s been the model of tight-end volatility turned consistent usage, and this opponent’s red-zone weakness magnifies that. So a heavy usage role meets a defense that collapses once it counts, keeping Njoku’s touchdown streak alive. More than 0.5 feels closer to a continuation than a risk.

#2 - T. McMillan

McMillan’s metrics are that of a clear alpha receiver, with a 31.6 percent target share, over 50 percent of his team’s air yards, and 85 percent of snaps on the perimeter. He’s consistently winning downfield and commanding volume even in run-heavy scripts. But New Orleans is the perfect antidote to those slow games, giving up the fourth-most touchdowns to wide receivers, a 9.9 percent touchdown rate to outside routes that ranks 30th, and 23rd in yards per target allowed to perimeter players.

They’ve been consistently beaten deep and outside, precisely McMillan’s lane of attack. The Saints' secondary plays tight-man with poor recovery speed, which amplifies his vertical routes and contested-catch ability. So high air-yard share meets a defense that bleeds perimeter scores, making him live from anywhere inside the 30. In a game with favorable pass script potential, more than 0.5 isn’t just plausible, it’s expected.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. The best Week 10 scoring spots won’t stay hidden long, strike now and own Sunday.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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