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Courtland Sutton’s role remains steady, but the quarterback situation and matchup severely limit his scoring path.

• Jarrett Stidham has not thrown a pass in a game in over two years and went 1-for-4 for 2 yards to Sutton in his last start
• Sutton has not scored in three straight games
• He plays 84% of his snaps out wide, where he is expected to see Christian Gonzalez, who has allowed just one touchdown in coverage all season

When quarterback uncertainty meets elite perimeter coverage, touchdowns become difficult to find.

Kayshon Boutte’s production profile is built on explosive plays, but this matchup suppresses those opportunities.

• Has scored just one touchdown over his last five games
• Plays 90% of his snaps out wide, where Denver allows just 6.7 yards per target, ranking 2nd
• On throws 20+ yards downfield, Denver allows a league-low 25.4% catch rate to receivers

When deep shots dry up and efficiency collapses outside, finding the end zone becomes unlikely. Unlike Boutte, my top pick is a player who’s already scored twice against this team and is in position to do it again.

Hunter Henry’s weekly volume fluctuates, but his red-zone role and matchup elevate his scoring outlook.

• Scored the fifth-most touchdowns at the position this season
• Owns 33.8% of his team’s red-zone targets, the highest share among tight ends
• Denver funnels production to tight ends, with 28.2% of receptions against them going to the position, the sixth-highest rate

When red-zone usage meets a defense that feeds tight ends, one score is firmly in play.

Rhamondre Stevenson remains the Patriots’ most trusted back in high-leverage situations.

• Scored four touchdowns over the final three games of the regular season
• Has out-touched Henderson 33 to 23 in the postseason while running more than twice as many pass routes
• Denver allowed the third-most receiving touchdowns to running backs this season

When snap share, pass-game usage, and scoring trends align, Stevenson’s touchdown path stays intact.

Stefon Diggs’ scoring profile has thinned out, and the matchup further suppresses his touchdown path.

• Scored just five total touchdowns across 19 games this season
• Plays 52% of his snaps from the slot, where Denver has allowed just one touchdown all year
• Denver allowed the fewest wide receiver touchdowns during the regular season, giving up only six

When scoring volume is already limited and the defense erases slot touchdowns, finding the end zone becomes unlikely.

Kenneth Walker’s role expands dramatically with the backfield thinning, and his scoring profile spikes accordingly.

• Zach Charbonnet is out with a torn ACL, positioning Walker as the clear workhorse
• With Charbonnet off the field, Walker produced 145 total yards and three touchdowns last week against the 49ers
• Walker has scored a touchdown in both games against the Rams this season

When workload consolidates and scoring history is already established, one touchdown is the expectation.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s breakout season continues to translate directly into scoring equity.

• Finished with 10 receiving touchdowns, the fifth-most among wide receivers
• Logged 96 receiving yards and a touchdown in his last matchup against the Rams
• Los Angeles allows the fifth-highest yards per target to outside wide receivers

When volume, efficiency, and matchup align, Smith-Njigba’s path to the end zone stays clear.

Davante Adams’ touchdown profile remains unmatched, regardless of matchup.

• Led the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns despite missing time with injury
• Recorded 28 end-zone targets this season, the most since tracking began
• Scored a touchdown in his most recent matchup against Seattle

When end-zone usage reaches this level, one score becomes the baseline outcome.

Kyren Williams’ role has swung back toward full control, and the matchup amplifies his scoring chances.

• Seattle has allowed the most receptions to running backs this season
• Logged 25 total touches last week compared to six for Blake Corum, reaffirming backfield control
• Scored three touchdowns over his first two playoff game and has already found the end zone against Seattle this season

When volume dominance meets a defense vulnerable to running back scoring, a touchdown follows.

Reminder: Sunday I gave you both Drake Maye: Under 7.5 Rush Attempts and Colby Parkinson: Over 20.5 receiving yards.

Maye finished with 4 Attempts and Parkinson finished with 56 receiving yards. No sweat.

Today's pick is ready and waiting.