Long-Shot Lay

It only takes one big hit. I’ve built an 8-pick long-shot lay that can flip $55 into $15K… in two minutes or less.

#8 - G. Pickens: O 25.5 Longest Reception

George Pickens has become one of the NFL’s most explosive playmakers, producing chunk gains every week regardless of coverage. He leads the NFL in end-zone targets, proof that he’s the go-to option in high-leverage situations and trusted to take deep shots. He’s also scored in four straight games with five total touchdowns, showing that even limited volume turns into elite efficiency.

But what makes this projection so appealing is the matchup. Carolina ranks 5TH WORST against WR1s over the last three weeks, giving up consecutive 100-yard games to Stefon Diggs and Jaylen Waddle. They’ve also allowed the 4TH MOST completions of 20+ yards since Week 3, consistently getting burned over the top. So with Pickens coming off a 43-yard touchdown against Sauce Gardner, one of the league’s toughest corners, this number feels laughably low. When the volume meets this matchup, one clean target could cash this instantly.

#7 - J. Smith-Njigba: O 76.5 Receiving Yards

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has quietly developed into one of the most efficient receivers in football, putting up historic numbers in limited opportunities. He ranks 2ND all time through five weeks in yards per route run (4.20), trailing only Tyreek Hill’s 2023 start, and commands a massive 33% target share with nearly 50% of Seattle’s air yards. That combination of volume and efficiency is unmatched.

But what makes this week special is the environment. Seattle projects as a road underdog in what should be a top-5 passing pace game, and Jacksonville’s secondary has been a disaster. Over the past month, they’ve ranked BOTTOM 5 vs WR1s, giving up 100+ yards to Ja’Marr Chase and Nico Collins. Smith-Njigba just went 8-for-9 for 132 yards and a touchdown in a similar uptempo setup, showing how easily he capitalizes when game flow opens up. So with Seattle forced to air it out again, this matchup and usage profile align perfectly for another breakout.

#6 - J. Herbert: O 14.5 Rushing Yards

Justin Herbert’s passing stats have dipped, but that’s exactly what’s driven his rushing ceiling up. He’s averaging a career high 30.6 rushing yards per game and has cleared 24 yards in four of his last five outings. But this week, he draws a Miami defense that creates pressure at the 5TH HIGHEST rate in football (42.6%) yet struggles to contain scrambling quarterbacks, allowing the 3RD MOST QB rushing yards over the past three weeks.

Add in that Los Angeles’ offensive line ranks among the BOTTOM 5 in protection after losing both Joe Alt and Mekhi Becton, and it’s clear why Herbert’s legs have become a bigger part of the plan. His average depth of target has plummeted to 3.8 air yards per attempt, showing how fast he’s getting the ball out or tucking it himself. In a matchup where pocket time will collapse fast and Miami’s defense over-pursues, Herbert’s mobility gives him an obvious path to clearing this number again.

#5 - J. Jacobs: O 97.5 Rush + Rec Yards

Josh Jacobs continues to dominate workload share, logging 20+ touches in every game and ranking 3RD among all RBs in expected points per game. But efficiency has lagged behind that volume. His offensive line was generating just 0.35 yards before contact per rush, ranking 41ST of 43 qualifying backs. That’s about to change.

With Banks and Tom returning up front, Jacobs finally gets blocking support against a Bengals defense that’s struggled badly against running backs. Cincinnati allows the 3RD MOST total yards (167.6) and 3RD MOST touchdowns (8) to backfields this year, including one of the BOTTOM 5 rushing point rates in football (17.1 per game). This is the ideal setup for a volume-heavy back regaining efficiency at the exact moment the matchup breaks open. Everything from usage to blocking to defensive weakness aligns here. This number assumes the old Jacobs, not the one getting a full runway to explode again.

#4 - T. Kraft: O 4.5 Receptions

Tucker Kraft has quietly become one of the most efficient and dynamic tight ends in football. He ranks 4TH at the position in yards per route run (2.12) and sits just one yard behind the league leader in yards after catch despite playing one fewer game. His 5-for-56 line last week could’ve been huge; he was tackled inside the one twice.

This week, the matchup does the heavy lifting. The Bengals allow the 5TH MOST catches to tight ends (6.8 per game) and the 5TH HIGHEST share of team receptions (28.3%), funneling throws underneath and across the middle. They also surrender an 8.2% TD rate to TEs (25TH in red-zone efficiency) and the 3RD HIGHEST yardage share allowed to the position over the last four weeks. When you blend Kraft’s elite after-catch ability with one of the league’s softest coverage zones, this number looks like a free square. He’s due to convert efficiency into volume, and this is the matchup that makes it happen.

#3 - T. Etienne Jr.: O 14.5 Receiving Yards

Travis Etienne’s production dipped last week, but his role didn’t. He still handled 75% of Jacksonville’s backfield touches, ranking 12TH in overall usage. That kind of workload meets the perfect matchup here. Seattle ranks 2ND BEST against the run, allowing just 65.6 rushing yards per game to backs, but gives up the MOST receiving points to RBs in football.

That split forces opponents to move the ball through the air on short routes and screens, exactly where Etienne thrives. He already runs routes on 40% of dropbacks (RB27) and owns an 8.6% target share (RB26), and the Seahawks have allowed the 3RD MOST receptions to RBs since Week 3. While ground efficiency will be capped, the game script should tilt his way through the air. Expect designed checkdowns and space touches to unlock his speed. This number should fall quickly once Jacksonville adjusts to Seattle’s defensive front.

#2 - T. Franklin: O 39.5 Receiving Yards

Troy Franklin’s role hasn’t changed even when the box score dips. He’s run routes on 79% of dropbacks, maintaining an 84% participation rate since Week 1, proving his spot as the consistent WR2. That matters here because the Jets’ defense completely tilts coverage. Sauce Gardner shadows WR1s on 80% of snaps, and New York ranks TOP 5 at limiting primary receivers.

But that leaves a glaring vulnerability. They’re BOTTOM 8 against WR2s, and it’s been exploited in three straight weeks: Ryan Flournoy (6-114), Sterling Shepard (4-80), and Calvin Austin (4-70-1). While Gardner takes away the top target, Franklin inherits the free matchups and high-value targets underneath. With consistent routes and the Jets’ coverage funneling throws his direction, this number feels way too low. The trend is obvious; every WR2 in this spot has gone off. Franklin’s next in line.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. One ticket, 8t picks, and the chance to flip $55 into $15K. Lock it in before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

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