Long-Shot Lay

It only takes one big hit. I’ve built an 8-pick long-shot lay that can flip $55 into $10K… in two minutes or less.

#8 - Q. Judkins: O 69.5 Rushing Yards

Judkins’ Week 6 dip was all about context, negative game script and a collapsed offensive line. But his role remains secure, and this week sets up for a major rebound. The Dolphins have allowed the 2ND-HIGHEST yards per carry (5.6) to running backs and the MOST total RB yards per game (179.3) over the last 5 weeks.

They’ve already surrendered 5 RB1 scoring weeks in 6 games, allowing backs like Stevenson, Dowdle, Vidal, Cook, and Hall to go over 110 yards. Cleveland enters as home favorites for the first time this season, giving Judkins the positive script he needs to stay on the field and grind volume. The Dolphins’ defensive structure has been shredded both up the middle and on the edges. They rank bottom 2 in EPA vs the run and have been gashed for explosive plays weekly. So if the Browns stay ahead, Judkins’ early-down role should translate into chunk gains all afternoon. This matchup is tailor-made for him to smash this projection.

#7 - T. Warren: O 6.5 Targets

Warren continues to look like one of the most advanced young tight ends in football. He’s logged back-to-back games with 9 targets, holds a 30% target share, and leads all tight ends with 2.27 yards per route run. But the Chargers’ defense creates a sneaky opportunity here.

They rank 4TH-FEWEST in yards allowed per game to tight ends, but they also allow a TOP-5 touchdown rate (9.4%), meaning completions are coming at high leverage spots. The coverage matchup is ideal as the Chargers sit near the top of the league in Cover 3 and Cover 4 rates, where Warren sees targets on 34.9% of routes and averages a ridiculous 3.86 yards per route run. The Colts’ red-zone efficiency only amplifies this as they’ve scored on 10 consecutive red-zone trips, the BEST streak in the NFL, and Warren’s hybrid alignment keeps him involved across all game scripts. So in an offense that funnels through him and a matchup that aligns perfectly with his usage, Warren should easily clear this number on volume alone.

#6 - R. Odunze: O 49.5 Receiving Yards

Odunze’s usage profile screams breakout. He’s led Chicago in targets in 4 of 5 games, commanding over 55% of the team’s end-zone looks and a 30% red-zone target share, elite numbers for a young receiver. His efficiency has dipped slightly in recent weeks, but context matters as 25% of his targets have been off target due to Caleb Williams’ league-high inaccuracy under pressure.

But the Saints can’t generate that pressure. They rank 27TH in pressure rate and have allowed the 3RD-MOST yards per target and a TOP-3 touchdown rate to WR1s over the last 5 games. With D.J. Moore’s status uncertain, Chicago’s passing funnel points directly to Odunze, who also leads the team in play-action usage, seeing 25%+ of targets on designed movement plays. So with clean pockets, heavy motion, and a matchup that gifts yardage to top receivers, Odunze is positioned to crush this number in a game where the Bears’ offense projects to move efficiently early.

#5 - C. Williams: O 1.5 Passing TDs

Williams has found rhythm with Chicago’s new offensive structure, and the metrics back it up. Out of a clean pocket, he ranks 6TH in yards per attempt (8.5) and has thrown 8 touchdowns to 1 interception, but his completion rate drops under pressure due to inconsistent line play.

But the Saints can’t exploit that. They rank 27TH in pressure rate and have allowed quarterbacks to complete 75% of passes and post the 3RD-HIGHEST touchdown rate (8.8%) when unpressured. New Orleans has also allowed multiple passing touchdowns in every game this season, giving up explosive efficiency to even mid-tier QBs. The Bears just hit season highs in pre-snap motion (63.6%) and play-action usage (44.8%), two areas where the Saints rank bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. So if Chicago keeps leaning into that offensive identity, Williams is positioned to shred a defense that’s hemorrhaging production through the air. With the Bears projected for a top 10 team total, this pick looks like a lock for another multi-TD day.

#4 - C. Sutton: O 44.5 Receiving Yards

Sutton’s numbers look volatile on paper, but the usage tells a different story. He leads Denver with a 27.8% target share vs man coverage and a 34.5% first-read rate on those looks, meaning Bo Nix locks onto him whenever defenses play tight. But last week’s matchup with Sauce Gardner forced everything underneath.

The Giants are the exact opposite. They’ve struggled all season with big-bodied outside receivers, allowing strong performances to Pickens (5-68-1), Quentin Johnston (8-98-1), and A.J. Brown (6-80). New York ranks bottom 10 in points allowed to perimeter WRs over the last month, and their man-heavy coverage plays right into Sutton’s skill set. Denver’s offense has been inconsistent, but Sutton remains their most stable piece, handling the lion’s share of first-read looks in contested situations. So against a defense that’s repeatedly lost to physical boundary receivers, Sutton is positioned to bounce back in a big way and push well past this number.

#3 - M. Taylor: O 29.5 Receiving Yards

Taylor’s volume and route involvement are quietly elite for a rookie tight end. He’s been on the field for 85%+ of dropbacks in consecutive weeks, earning a 25–27% target share before last week’s offensive collapse. But Denver’s pressure and game flow buried the Jets’ passing tree. Now, against Carolina, the matchup completely flips.

The Panthers are the 2ND-WORST defense vs tight ends, allowing 10.1 yards per target (31ST) and a TOP-5 touchdown rate to the position. They run Cover 3 at the 3RD-HIGHEST rate in football, and Taylor is second on the team with 19.2% of targets vs Cover 3, producing 1.64 yards per route run in those looks. With Garrett Wilson out, Taylor inherits the largest remaining slice of New York’s target pie. So when you combine every factor, the weak coverage shell, target funnel, and a team that’s surrendered big days to tight ends all year, this projection feels way too low for the Jets’ new No. 2 option.

#2 - J. Taylor: Yes 0.5 First TD Scorer

Taylor has reached full workhorse mode and remains the most reliable red-zone back in football. He leads the league in rushing yards (603), attempts (115), and touchdowns (8) through six games, and no player has more carries inside the 5-yard line (13) or 10-yard line (20).

But this matchup against the Chargers makes it even easier. Los Angeles has been destroyed by running backs in consecutive weeks, allowing 150+ rushing yards and 2 touchdowns to both De’Von Achane and Bill Croskey-Merritt. Indy’s offense is the perfect foil as they’ve scored touchdowns on 10 straight red-zone trips and lead the NFL in touchdown rate per drive (37.5%). The Chargers, meanwhile, are allowing opponents to score on over 40% of red-zone trips, near the bottom of the league. So with a dominant role, elite opportunity share, and the NFL’s hottest red-zone offense, Taylor’s touchdown odds are as automatic as it gets.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. One ticket, 8 picks, and the chance to flip $55 into $10K. Lock it in before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. You can get a free $20 (no deposit necessary) on SLEEPER if you sign up using code HOLKA9