Long-Shot Lay

It only takes one big hit. I’ve built an 8-pick long-shot lay that can flip $50 into $15K… in two minutes or less.

#8 - N. Collins: O 24.5 Longest Reception

Nico Collins is the clear WR1 in Houston, sitting at a 27 percent target share and a 41 percent air-yard share. He’s not just getting volume, he’s producing with it, topping 2.0 yards per route in three straight games, including a season-best 2.82 last week even in a run-heavy game script. But now he faces a Baltimore secondary that could be without all of its top corners, fresh off surrendering 168 yards and 3 touchdowns to Kansas City receivers. So with top-10 air-yard usage against a depleted defense that just gave up explosive plays in bunches, Collins is set up to clear 24.5 on one vertical route.

#7 - T. McMillan: O 0.5 Rush + Rec TDs

Tetairoa McMillan has WR1 usage across the board with a 24.5 percent target share and a 40.7 percent air-yard share, while running nearly 87 percent of his routes outside. He leads the team in go routes, which directly fuels red-zone and big-play touchdown chances. But Miami’s defense has been bleeding to WR1s, allowing 9.6 yards per target and a 12 percent touchdown rate, one of the worst marks in football. They’ve also just given up strong WR weeks to Michael Pittman, Garrett Wilson, and Khalil Shakir. So with alpha-level opportunity colliding with a defense ranked near the bottom in outside WR touchdowns, McMillan is in a prime spot to find the end zone.

#6 - J. Goff: O 1.5 Pass TDs

Jared Goff gets one of the league’s weakest pass rushes in Cincinnati, a defense ranked 28th in pressure rate and 27th in sack rate. That lack of disruption has translated to production, with the Bengals giving up 19.2 fantasy points to Trevor Lawrence, 15.3 to Carson Wentz, and 25.7 to Bo Nix in the last three weeks. But Detroit’s offense adds even more fuel with a team total just under 30 points, meaning the market already expects scoring opportunities. So with time to throw, high expected volume, and a defense that has consistently allowed passing production, Goff is lined up to clear 1.5 touchdowns in what looks like a don’t-overthink-it spot.

#5 - J. Taylor: O 15.5 Receiving Yards

Jonathan Taylor’s role in the passing game has taken a leap forward. He’s already caught 13 passes through four games, nearly matching his full-season totals from each of the last two years. He also pulled in five receptions last week and has stacked 113 receiving yards so far, well above his early-season pace from 2022 and 2023. But this isn’t just usage, it’s secure opportunity, with Taylor handling a staggering 96.7 percent of Indianapolis’ backfield touches last game. And against a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in success rate against running back runs, teams are naturally funneling production to backs as receivers. So with elite workload plus expanded pass-game involvement, Taylor’s 15.5 receiving projection looks far too low.

#4 - T. Warren: O 49.5 Receiving Yards

Tyler Warren has been one of the most efficient tight ends in football, ranking third in target share at 22.7 percent and first in yards per route at 2.35. He’s fresh off a breakout game with 70 yards and two scores, but the matchup makes this even stronger. The Raiders play more Cover 3 than any team in the league, and Warren leads all tight ends with 120 yards against that coverage through four weeks, generating a 28 percent target share and 3.75 yards per route on those snaps. But Vegas hasn’t slowed tight ends in general, allowing 7.6 yards per target despite avoiding touchdowns. So with scheme fit, efficiency, and usage all stacked in his favor, Warren has one of the clearest paths to smashing 49.5 yards this week.

#3 - J. Fields: O 44.5 Rushing Yards

Justin Fields continues to be one of the most dangerous rushing quarterbacks in football. He’s logged 48, 49, and 81 yards in three starts this season, while leading the league with a 13.3 percent scramble rate. That kind of rushing floor gives him consistent upside even when passing production swings. But the matchup makes this even better with Dallas allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks overall and the second most rushing points to the position at 6.1 per game. They’ve already given up top-8 quarterback weeks to Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, Caleb Williams, and Jordan Love in consecutive games. So with Fields’ built-in rushing volume combined with one of the league’s weakest quarterback-containment defenses, clearing 44.5 looks inevitable.

#2 - D. Achane: O 99.5 Rush + Rec Yards

De’Von Achane has fully stepped into feature-back usage, handling 77.8 percent of Miami’s backfield touches last week after a brief dip. He turned that workload into 21 touches for 101 yards and a touchdown, proving his efficiency holds up even with volume. But his playmaking is actually trending up as Achane owns a 14 percent explosive run rate, eighth best in the league, and has reduced negative plays to just 20 percent of carries after sitting at 24.4 percent last year. So when you combine near-bellcow usage with top-10 explosiveness, the 99.5 total yard projection doesn’t reflect his true role. Achane has multiple pathways including rushing efficiency, passing-game volume, and red-zone usage to blow through this number.

Tap HERE for my #1 Pick

That’s the list. One ticket, eight picks, and the chance to flip $50 into $15K—lock it in before kickoff.

As promised, in two minutes or less.

See you out there,

-Joe

P.S. this week only… You can get $50 after playing just $5 on DraftKings Pick6 if you sign up using code HOLKA